[et_pb_section fb_built=”1″ admin_label=”section” _builder_version=”4.16″ custom_padding=”0px||0px|||” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_row column_structure=”1_2,1_2″ admin_label=”row” _builder_version=”4.16″ background_size=”initial” background_position=”top_left” background_repeat=”repeat” custom_padding=”4px|||||” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_column type=”1_2″ _builder_version=”4.16″ custom_padding=”|||” global_colors_info=”{}” custom_padding__hover=”|||”][et_pb_text admin_label=”Text” _builder_version=”4.24.2″ text_text_color=”#000000″ text_font_size=”16px” text_letter_spacing=”1px” background_size=”initial” background_position=”top_left” background_repeat=”repeat” global_colors_info=”{}”]<\/p>\n
In the past, there was always a moment of silence in Icelanders’ homes when the weather report was read on the radio after the news. This was at a time that the nation lived on agriculture and fishing and the weather was pivotal. Even today, we are very dependent on the weather. Weather forecasts have improved with computers and technology, but the Icelandic weather is still unpredictable. Wouldn’t life be easier if we knew what the weather is going to be like ahead of time? The next days, weeks, and months, even? We could plan all kinds of trips and gatherings around such certainty, or maybe just paint the roof.<\/p>\n
Of course, we Icelanders are used to a lot when it comes to the weather. Uncertainty is really the only thing that is always certain, and all our plans take that into account. We set up a big marquee in the garden for the wedding reception just in case it rains, and many of us have shovels in our cars \u2013 in case we need to shovel snow. We are usually prepared for the worst. If you are planning to drive to \u00cdsafj\u00f6r\u00f0ur in January, you better have a four-wheel drive car, on studded tires, and with a big snow shovel in the trunk.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s certainly not very original to compare the weather to the stock market and the car to a company. But it’s still a useful analogy. Many people spend their time trying to predict the market, which has similar results as making long term weather forecasts. This is the wrong approach. Instead of focusing on the weather, we should think about the vehicle that is supposed to get us to our destination. That is to say, spend more time choosing the car than reading weather forecasts. Similarly, the key to success in investments is to spend your time choosing good companies that are well equipped to withstand the ups and downs of the market.<\/p>\n
It is clear that it is not a lack of information that limits future predictions. As an investor myself, I can attest that the flow of information to those who are buying and selling stocks is immense. It is not possible for an ordinary person to read all the information that all kinds of news sources pump out about world affairs that could possibly affect stock prices. The danger is that trying to react to world news or invest according to how the stock market is behaving at any given time, will not be successful in the long term. In spite of that, the reality is that the discussion is usually about the weather (the stock market,) and not the car (the company.) When business operations are discussed in the media, only a few key figures are highlighted from last year’s financial statements, which says very little about the company’s current or future operations, let alone having the company’s operations put in context with other similar companies. Such a comparison would be a much clearer indicator on how the company is doing, especially if that comparison were also put into context with foreign companies.<\/p>\n
There are many things that can affect the price of stocks. And the stock market is not always consistent – at least it doesn’t appear to be. Stock prices can go up when people start to have faith in a company after something happens, herd behaviour occurs, and it can go down if a large shareholder simply decides to sell their stake in the company. What is often the biggest surprise is when companies deliver good results for a certain period, but then tend to decline. This is usually caused by the fact that, despite good results, the market forces believe they can see – with an emphasis on believe – that something in the future will have a negative impact on the company’s operations. This could be an increase in interest rates, a change in consumption habits, increased competition, a change in legislation that affects the company, and so on. This can also be the other way around, i.e. a company produces bad results, but the price of its shares rises. The reason here is the same \u2013 market forces believe they see something in the future that affects the company’s stock price.<\/p>\n
Charlie Munger, the former vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway and longtime business partner of Warren Buffett, who recently passed away at the age of 99, is often quoted in this context. He makes it a point to focus on understanding a company (the car,) having safety (the tarp, the studded tires, and the shovel,) and being patient in the market.<\/p>\n
It is therefore important, when people decide to invest in a company, that they look at the basic operations of the company and compare the operations with companies in similar operations. It is also important to examine how the company is prepared for impending crises, such as wars, epidemics, technological revolutions, and economic crises.<\/p>\n
[\/et_pb_text][\/et_pb_column][et_pb_column type=”1_2″ _builder_version=”4.16″ custom_padding=”|||” global_colors_info=”{}” custom_padding__hover=”|||”][et_pb_image src=”https:\/\/spakur.is\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/IMG_1340-scaled.jpg” title_text=”IMG_1340″ _builder_version=”4.24.2″ _module_preset=”default” custom_margin=”||14px|||” global_colors_info=”{}”][\/et_pb_image][et_pb_text _builder_version=”4.24.2″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”]Helga and Balto in midsummer in West Iceland<\/em>\u00a0<\/span>[\/et_pb_text][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][\/et_pb_section]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" In the past, there was always a moment of silence in Icelanders’ homes when the weather report was read on the radio after the news. This was at a time that the nation lived on agriculture and fishing and the weather was pivotal. Even today, we are very dependent on the weather. Weather forecasts have […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1220,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_et_pb_use_builder":"on","_et_pb_old_content":"H\u00e9r \u00e1 fyrri t\u00ed\u00f0 var \u00e1vallt \u00feagnarstund \u00e1 heimilum \u00cdslendinga \u00feegar ve\u00f0urfregnir voru lesnar \u00ed \u00fatvarpinu \u00e1 eftir fr\u00e9ttum. \u00dea\u00f0 var \u00e1 \u00feeim t\u00edma sem \u00fej\u00f3\u00f0in lif\u00f0i \u00e1 landb\u00fana\u00f0i og fiskvei\u00f0um og ve\u00f0ri\u00f0 skipti \u00f6llu. Enn \u00ed dag erum vi\u00f0 mj\u00f6g h\u00e1\u00f0 ve\u00f0r\u00e1ttunni. Ve\u00f0ursp\u00e1rnar hafa batna\u00f0 me\u00f0 t\u00f6lvum og t\u00e6kni en eftir sem \u00e1\u00f0ur er \u00edslensk ve\u00f0r\u00e1tta \u00f3fyrirsj\u00e1anleg. V\u00e6ri l\u00edfi\u00f0 ekki au\u00f0veldara ef vi\u00f0 vissum ve\u00f0ri\u00f0 fram \u00ed t\u00edmann? Jafnvel n\u00e6stu daga, vikur og m\u00e1nu\u00f0i? Vi\u00f0 myndum skipuleggja allskonar fer\u00f0ir og samkomur \u00ed kringum sl\u00edka vissu e\u00f0a kannski bara m\u00e1la \u00feaki\u00f0.\r\n\r\nVi\u00f0 \u00cdslendingar erum vitaskuld \u00fdmsu v\u00f6n \u00feegar kemur a\u00f0 ve\u00f0rinu. \u00d3vissan er eiginlega \u00fea\u00f0 eina sem er alltaf \u00f6ruggt og allar \u00e1\u00e6tlanir okkar taka mi\u00f0 af \u00fev\u00ed. Vi\u00f0 setjum upp st\u00f3rt part\u00fdtjald \u00fati \u00ed gar\u00f0i fyrir br\u00fa\u00f0kaupsveisluna ef \u00fea\u00f0 f\u00e6ri a\u00f0 rigna og m\u00f6rg okkar erum me\u00f0 sk\u00f3flur \u00ed b\u00edlunum okkar \u2013 ef ske kynni a\u00f0 vi\u00f0 \u00feyrftum a\u00f0 moka snj\u00f3. Vi\u00f0 erum yfirleitt b\u00fain undir \u00fea\u00f0 versta. Ef hugmyndin er a\u00f0 keyra \u00e1 \u00cdsafj\u00f6r\u00f0 \u00ed jan\u00faar er betra a\u00f0 vera \u00e1 fj\u00f3rhj\u00f3ladrifnum b\u00edl, \u00e1 nagladekkjum og me\u00f0 st\u00f3ra og g\u00f3\u00f0a snj\u00f3sk\u00f3flu \u00ed skottinu.\r\n\r\n\u00dea\u00f0 er vitaskuld ekki s\u00e9rlega frumlegt a\u00f0 l\u00edkja ve\u00f0rinu vi\u00f0 hlutabr\u00e9famarka\u00f0inn og b\u00edlnum vi\u00f0 fyrirt\u00e6ki. En \u00feetta er samt gagnleg saml\u00edking. Mj\u00f6g margir ey\u00f0a t\u00edma s\u00ednum \u00ed \u00fea\u00f0 a\u00f0 reyna a\u00f0 sp\u00e1 fyrir um marka\u00f0inn sem gefur \u00e1l\u00edka \u00e1rangur og a\u00f0 b\u00faa til langt\u00edma ve\u00f0ursp\u00e1r. \u00deetta er r\u00f6ng n\u00e1lgun. \u00cd sta\u00f0 \u00feess a\u00f0 einbl\u00edna \u00e1 ve\u00f0ri\u00f0 \u00e6ttum vi\u00f0 a\u00f0 hugsa um farart\u00e6ki\u00f0 sem \u00e1 koma okkur \u00e1 \u00e1fangasta\u00f0. \u00dea\u00f0 er a\u00f0 segja a\u00f0 ey\u00f0a lengri t\u00edma \u00ed a\u00f0 velja b\u00edlinn vel fremur enn a\u00f0 liggja yfir ve\u00f0ursp\u00e1m. A\u00f0 sama skapi er lykillinn a\u00f0 \u00fev\u00ed a\u00f0 n\u00e1 \u00e1rangri \u00ed fj\u00e1rfestingum s\u00e1 a\u00f0 verja t\u00edma s\u00ednum \u00ed a\u00f0 velja g\u00f3\u00f0 fyrirt\u00e6ki sem eru vel \u00ed stakk b\u00fain til \u00feess a\u00f0 \u00feola h\u00e6\u00f0ir og l\u00e6g\u00f0ir \u00e1 marka\u00f0inum.\r\n\r\nLj\u00f3st er a\u00f0 \u00fea\u00f0 er ekki skortur \u00e1 uppl\u00fdsingum sem takmarkar sp\u00e1r fram \u00ed t\u00edmann. \u00c9g get sj\u00e1lf votta\u00f0 \u00fea\u00f0 sem fj\u00e1rfestir a\u00f0 uppl\u00fdsingastreymi\u00f0 til \u00feeirra sem eru a\u00f0 kaupa og selja hlutabr\u00e9f er gr\u00ed\u00f0arlegt. \u00dea\u00f0 er ekki \u00e1 f\u00e6ri venjulegs manns a\u00f0 komast yfir allar \u00fe\u00e6r uppl\u00fdsingar sem allskonar fr\u00e9ttaveitur d\u00e6la \u00fat um heimsm\u00e1lin sem g\u00e6tu m\u00f6gulega haft \u00e1hrif \u00e1 hlutabr\u00e9faver\u00f0. H\u00e6ttan er s\u00fa a\u00f0 \u00fea\u00f0 muni ekki ver\u00f0a fars\u00e6lt til lengri t\u00edma a\u00f0 reyna a\u00f0 breg\u00f0ast vi\u00f0 heimsfr\u00e9ttum e\u00f0a fj\u00e1rfesta eftir \u00fev\u00ed hvernig hlutabr\u00e9famarka\u00f0urinn hagar s\u00e9r hverju sinni. Sta\u00f0an er samt s\u00fa a\u00f0 umr\u00e6\u00f0an sn\u00fdst oftast um ve\u00f0ri\u00f0 (hlutabr\u00e9famarka\u00f0inn) en ekki b\u00edlinn (fyrirt\u00e6ki\u00f0). \u00deegar fjalla\u00f0 er um rekstur fyrirt\u00e6kja \u00ed fj\u00f6lmi\u00f0lum eru dregnar fram \u00f6rf\u00e1ar lykilst\u00e6r\u00f0ir sem eru fr\u00e1 s\u00ed\u00f0asta \u00e1rsuppgj\u00f6ri og segja \u00fev\u00ed ansi l\u00edti\u00f0 um n\u00faverandi e\u00f0a framt\u00ed\u00f0arrekstur fyrirt\u00e6kisins, hva\u00f0 \u00fe\u00e1 a\u00f0 rekstur fyrirt\u00e6kisins s\u00e9 settur \u00ed samhengi vi\u00f0 \u00f6nnur samb\u00e6rileg fyrirt\u00e6ki. Sl\u00edkur samanbur\u00f0ur myndi segja mun meira um hvernig fyrirt\u00e6ki\u00f0 er statt, einkum og s\u00e9r \u00ed lagi ef s\u00e1 samanbur\u00f0ur yr\u00f0i einnig settur \u00ed samhengi vi\u00f0 erlend fyrirt\u00e6ki.\r\n\r\n\u00dea\u00f0 er margt sem getur haft \u00e1hrif \u00e1 ver\u00f0 \u00e1 hlutabr\u00e9fum. Og hlutabr\u00e9famarka\u00f0urinn er ekki alltaf samkv\u00e6mur sj\u00e1lfum s\u00e9r \u2013 a.m.k. l\u00edtur \u00fea\u00f0 ekki \u00feannig \u00fat. Hlutabr\u00e9faver\u00f0 getur h\u00e6kka\u00f0 \u00feegar f\u00f3lk fer a\u00f0 hafa tr\u00fa \u00e1 fyrirt\u00e6ki eftir a\u00f0 eitthva\u00f0 gerist, hjar\u00f0heg\u00f0un ver\u00f0ur til og \u00fea\u00f0 getur l\u00e6kka\u00f0 ef st\u00f3r hluthafi einfaldlega \u00e1kve\u00f0ur a\u00f0 selja hlut sinn \u00ed f\u00e9laginu. \u00dea\u00f0 sem kemur oft mest \u00e1 \u00f3vart er \u00feegar fyrirt\u00e6ki skila g\u00f3\u00f0um \u00e1rangri fyrir \u00e1kve\u00f0i\u00f0 t\u00edmabil, en gefa s\u00ed\u00f0an gjarnan eftir. \u00deetta stafar yfirleitt af \u00fev\u00ed a\u00f0 \u00fer\u00e1tt fyrir g\u00f3\u00f0an \u00e1rangur telja marka\u00f0s\u00f6flin sig sj\u00e1 \u2013 me\u00f0 \u00e1herslu \u00e1 telja \u2013 a\u00f0 eitthva\u00f0 \u00ed framt\u00ed\u00f0inni muni hafa neikv\u00e6\u00f0 \u00e1hrif \u00e1 rekstur fyrirt\u00e6kisins. \u00deetta getur veri\u00f0 h\u00e6kkun vaxta, breyting \u00e1 neysluvenjum, aukin samkeppni, breyting \u00e1 l\u00f6ggj\u00f6f sem hefur \u00e1hrif \u00e1 fyrirt\u00e6ki\u00f0 og svo framvegis. \u00deetta getur l\u00edka veri\u00f0 \u00f6fugt, \u00fe.e. fyrirt\u00e6ki skilar sl\u00e6mu uppgj\u00f6ri en ver\u00f0 hlutabr\u00e9fa \u00feess h\u00e6kkar. \u00c1st\u00e6\u00f0an h\u00e9r er s\u00fa sama \u2013 marka\u00f0s\u00f6flin telja sig sj\u00e1 eitthva\u00f0 \u00ed framt\u00ed\u00f0inni sem hefur \u00e1hrif \u00e1 hlutabr\u00e9fver\u00f0 fyrirt\u00e6kisins.\r\n\r\n\u00cd \u00feessu sambandi er oft vitna\u00f0 \u00ed Charlie Munger, fyrrum varaformann Berkshire Hathaway og langvarandi vi\u00f0skiptaf\u00e9laga Warren Buffets sem n\u00fdlega f\u00e9ll fr\u00e1 99 \u00e1ra. Hann setur \u00ed brennidepil a\u00f0 einbeita s\u00e9r a\u00f0 \u00fev\u00ed a\u00f0 skilja fyrirt\u00e6ki (b\u00edlinn), hafa \u00f6ryggi (tjaldi\u00f0, nagladekkin og sk\u00f3flan) og vera \u00feolinm\u00f3\u00f0ur \u00e1 marka\u00f0inum.\r\n\r\n\u00dea\u00f0 er \u00fev\u00ed mikilv\u00e6gt, \u00feegar f\u00f3lk \u00e1kve\u00f0ur a\u00f0 fj\u00e1rfesta \u00ed fyrirt\u00e6ki, a\u00f0 \u00fea\u00f0 sko\u00f0i grunnrekstur f\u00e9lagsins og beri reksturinn saman vi\u00f0 fyrirt\u00e6ki \u00ed samb\u00e6rilegum rekstri. Einnig er mikilv\u00e6gt a\u00f0 \u00fea\u00f0 kanni hvernig fyrirt\u00e6ki\u00f0 er b\u00fai\u00f0 undir \u00e1f\u00f6ll sem munu koma, eins og str\u00ed\u00f0, fars\u00f3ttir, t\u00e6knibyltingar og efnahags\u00e1f\u00f6ll.","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[17],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1325","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-articles-en"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/spakur.is\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1325","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/spakur.is\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/spakur.is\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spakur.is\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spakur.is\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1325"}],"version-history":[{"count":10,"href":"https:\/\/spakur.is\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1325\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1425,"href":"https:\/\/spakur.is\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1325\/revisions\/1425"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spakur.is\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1220"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/spakur.is\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1325"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spakur.is\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1325"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spakur.is\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1325"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}